有关Traveler Response to Information的综述性报告，U.S. DOT / VOLPE CENTER,2002

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Understanding and Predicting Traveler Response to Information: A Literature Review
  Jane Lappin
  John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center
  Jon Bottom
  Charles River Associates
  Prepared for Brian Gardner U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration Office of Metropolitan Planning and Programs
Washington, D.C.
December 2001

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Table of Contents
1 BACKGROUND 1
1.1 Introduction .. 1
1.2 Scope and purpose of this document . 2
1.3 Structure of the document.. 4
2 TRAVELER BEHAVIOR WITHOUT INFORMATION.5
2.1 Route choice  5
2.2 Departure time choice 9
2.3 Mode choice. 11
3 TRAVELER BEHAVIOR WITH INFORMATION 12
3.1 Who are the potential users of real-time travel information?13
3.2 Traveler response to real-time information16
3.2.1 Trip context responses to ATIS17
3.2.2 Tripmaking responses to ATIS 20
3.2.3 Specific systems and examples  30
3.3 What kinds of information do users want? How much will they pay for it? 38
3.3.1 ATIS message reliability  42
3.4 User benefits from ATIS43
3.5 Day-to-day effects and learning 45
3.6 Human factors issues 50
4 NETWORK IMPACTS OF ATIS53
4.1 From individual- to network-level impacts 53
4.2 Conclusions from computational and analytical models  56
4.3 Conclusions from operational tests 59
5 MODELING THE NETWORK IMPACTS OF ATIS 62
5.1 The conventional transportation network modeling framework  64
5.1.1 Overview 64
5.1.2 Static traffic assignment 66
5.1.3 Dynamic traffic assignment 73
5.2 Difficulties of modeling ATIS in conventional DTA models 77
5.2.1 Terminology 77
5.2.2 Example. 78
5.2.3 Discussion of example. 79
5.2.4 Conclusions..... 81
5.3 A traffic network model framework for ATIS modeling.. 82
5.3.1 Modeling elements .. 82
5.3.2 Framework variables .. 83
5.3.3 Framework maps... 83
5.3.4 Composite map formulations of guidance consistency .. 85
5.3.5 Relationship to equilibrium models. 87
5.3.6 Solving ATIS network models 88
DOCUMENT REVIEWS.. 90
BIBLIOGRAPHY.... 321

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1.2 Scope and purpose of this document
In view of these reasons for an interest in traveler response to information, the Federal Highway Administration commissioned a review of published information on the subject; this report is one of the products of the study. It is a review of the literature published as of mid-2001 on the topic of traveler response to real-time information at the individual and network levels. (Static travel information is only considered in passing because of its rather limited scope for improving individual decisions or affecting network conditions.) The report’s intent is to summarize what is currently known about traveler response to information, in a form that provides a useful highlevel
understanding of the main issues.
This is not a comprehensive review – it could not possibly be, given the volume of material that
has been (and continues to be) published in relevant areas. Several criteria were applied in deciding what to review:
• recent (past few years) publications with relevant research or applications results;
• publications providing summaries of long-term research or operational programs;
• selected early (pre-1990) publications, chosen for their historical interest or because their results are still relevant;
• selected publications from the mid-1990s, again chosen for their relevance or historical interest.
It will be seen that, despite the number of publications in the field, understanding of traveler response to ATIS is still in its initial stages. No one is yet able to accurately predict, for a VMS displaying a particular message at a particular location in a particular network, what the effect on
individual travelers or on overall network conditions will be. Only limited data is available on individual responses to information, from operational deployments or from surveys investigating user reactions to hypothetical systems. Available data tends to be concentrated in specific areas
such as commuter driving behavior; much less is known about information effects on noncommute trips, transit riders and commercial vehicle operators, for example. Efforts to develop models of traveler response based on these data are, for the most part, cutting-edge academic research far removed from the capabilities and needs of mainstream practitioners. Network-level forecasting models capable of predicting ATIS system impacts are also still mostly ad hoc in
nature, frequently involving the cobbling together of two different model systems.
This state of affairs is not entirely surprising. Automobiles and modern transit systems were in use for roughly half a century before systematic and comprehensive travel data collection efforts were undertaken, and useful individual- and network-level transportation planning models began
to be developed and routinely applied. While the pace of research and development is much faster now, a decade of experiments with ATIS is not foundation enough to support the development of a full understanding of its effects.

For these reasons, this review does not devote excessive effort to documenting the complete sets of results from available user surveys, or the full details of current model systems. For the same reasons, too, it discusses survey and analysis methods as well as with results, because robust and powerful methods will be needed to obtain further useful results in the future. At this point in
the development of the field, the creation of appropriate tools and methods is just as necessary and important as their application.
This document may perhaps best be regarded as a source of raw materials that can be used in many different ways. Material can be extracted from it to prepare more specialized documents, focused on particular topics or audiences. It provides extensive references to and discussions of the published literature, enabling the original detailed results on particular subjects to be easily located. Although it mostly highlights what has been done to date, this focus also illuminates some of the gaps in current knowledge, and suggests actions that need to be taken in the future to advance the state of knowledge. In one particular area – the modeling of network-level ATIS impacts – the report makes suggestions regarding specific directions for future development approaches.
A companion document provides a number of specific recommendations for Department of Transportation actions to further knowledge in the field of traveler response to information, based in large part on the gaps identified here.

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1.3 Structure of the document
This document is in two parts:
• a high-level summary of the state of the art in a number of areas related to traveler response to information. It attempts to summarize what is known in the area, and also to point out major gaps in current knowledge; and
• a series of reviews (annotated extended abstracts) of relevant documents. These documents provided the knowledge and data that were used in preparing the high-level summary.
The summary discussion covers:
• traveler behavior without information (Section 2);
• traveler behavior with information (Section 3);
• network impacts of ATIS (Section 4); and
• modeling ATIS network impacts (Section 5).
In the document reviews, a single review sometimes covers several documents because of their logical or organizational connections; frequently these are cases where a series of articles describes a line of research pursued over time. To facilitate locating particular document reviews, a listing is provided following the table of contents; it references each document with the number of the page where it is reviewed.

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LBSALE[100]LBSALEUnderstanding and Predicting Traveler Response to Information: A Literature Review. U.S. DOT / VOLPE CENTER, JANUARY 2, 2002

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